From Professor Stephen Blank, US Army War College, via Eurasia Insight:
The Kurdish issue, specifically the matter of establishing a homeland for Kurds, has complicated efforts to stabilize Iraq. Now, there is growing concern among international experts that the Kurdish question could become a source of tension, and possibly conflict in the South Caucasus.
Media outlets in Turkey and Azerbaijan have reported that militant Kurds, in particular fighters affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party, have been settling in Nagorno-Karabakh and in portions of Armenian-occupied Azerbaijan, with the tacit support of the Armenian government in Yerevan. Many of the Kurds are reputed to have resettled in the strategically important Lachin Corridor, a strip of territory now occupied by Armenia that was formerly part of Azerbaijan proper. Control of Lachin is one of the main obstacles in the search for a Karabakh settlement.
Before the outbreak of the Karabakh conflict, Lachin had a high number of Kurdish residents, and during the 1920s, it was part of a Kurdish Autonomous Area within the Soviet Union. Much of the Kurdish population fled the region during the Karabakh war. But the fact remains that there is a historical precedent for a Kurdish presence in Lachin. Even so, their resettlement today — especially if reports about PKK militants being among the migrants are accurate — is fraught with peril for regional security.
So be honest: when was the last time you thought about Nagorno-Karabakh? Right. We’re talking about a conflict that kicked off in the Reagan administration and whose ceasefire has held for fourteen years. Nagorno-Karabakh has de facto autonomy – even a proto-embassy in Washington. And yet developments such as these illustrate nicely why ‘frozen conflict’ is a bit of a misnomer – they can heat up quite rapidly, after all. Unfortunately, diplomatic and philanthropic interest in frozen conflicts has a hard time gaining traction when there are so many new interminable wars to worry about.
Armenian officials deny the allegations and Blank allows that the Turks and Azeris may be engaging in some opportunistic propaganda. However, statements from Turkish and Azeri officials that neither country is ruling out the possibility of military operations against Kurdish militants in Karabakh should kickstart some momentum in the OSCE peace negotiations overseen by the US, Russia and France. Well done, PKK.
Tags: Add new tag, Caucasus, Frozen conflict, PKK
Saturday, 31, May, 2008 at 5:58 pm |
An interesting idea, Jeni – is it possible that any Armenian resettlement of Kurds in Lachin is a counterweight to the disparity in defence spending between it and Azerbaijan? After all, from what I gather, petrodollars have allowed the Azeris to spend as much on their defence budget as the Armenians do on their entire government budget… A reversal in capability from the time of the first war.
And, in answer to your question, barely a day goes by when my thoughts don’t wander at some point onto the thorny Nagorno-Karabakh question… But maybe that’s just me.
Sunday, 7, September, 2008 at 1:35 am |
I wanted to know what the georgian conflict was realy about and I found a pipeline running in from baku ,through georgia , into turkey and ready for shipment to western markets.
It will take away the russia/Iran monopoly of oil production from the caspian sea and give it control by The Western markets.
If this is true there is 200 billion barrels
@ 100.00 per barrel = 20 trillion
@ 200.00 per barrel = 40 trillion
These are the major players
http://posmedprod.webs.com/oil.htm