Wheels coming off NATO’s Afghan mission?

Canada threatens to pull soldiers from Afghanistan

As we’ve discussed already on this blog much of the heavy lifting in Afghanistan is being done by a handful of NATO members: the US, UK, Canada, Netherlands, and Denmark.  All, including the US, are overstretched but perhaps none more so than the Canadian Forces. Canada has superb, professional light infantry but the country basically started to claim its  Cold War peace dividend about two and a half decades before the Cold War actually ended. It’s a small force, chronically overstretched and underfunded. I’m not sure if it’s starting to crack or Prime Minister Harper is bluffing–maybe both, actually. Anyway, read on:

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada will pull its 2,500 troops out of Afghanistan early next year unless NATO sends in significant reinforcements, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Monday, signaling Ottawa has lost patience with what it sees as foot-dragging by allies.

The minority Conservative government wants the soldiers to stay beyond their current withdrawal date of February 2009 but in another potential threat to the mission, the main opposition Liberal Party expressed doubts about the idea of an extension.

Harper, who is exasperated at the refusal of many other NATO nations to commit more troops to Afghanistan, said the Alliance’s failure to provide enough forces meant the whole future of the organization was under serious threat.

So far, 78 Canadian soldiers and a diplomat have died since Ottawa deployed troops to Afghanistan in 2002.

Not surprisingly, U.S. says no to Canada’s request for more troops.  They’re already heavily committed. Anyway, Harper’s threat is not aimed at Washington but at Brussels where it seems Canada’s demand is getting some attention:

OTTAWA–Canada’s Afghanistan ultimatum will be at the top of the agenda when NATO defence ministers meet in Lithuania in one week’s time, a spokesperson for the military alliance said yesterday.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said this week that Canada’s 2,500 soldiers in Kandahar must be backed up by an additional 1,000 troops from another country or he will pull out of the Afghan mission in February 2009.

NATO spokesperson James Appathurai said he is optimistic NATO can find more soldiers, but indicated that Harper’s threat has caused some alarm at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“Clearly there is an issue in Kandahar and this will certainly be discussed in Vilnius,” he said, referring to the Lithuanian capital where defence ministers will gather on Feb. 7 and 8.

I think a week from now will be make or break time for NATO in Afghanistan. Reports suggest that the seriousness of the issue is recognized and that 10 countries have agreed to boost the numbers of their troops on the ground. That’s good news, to be sure; but where will they be deployedand what operational restrictions will be placed on their employment?

The Canadian position is spelled out in detail in the Manley Report: Independent Panel on Canada’s Future Role in Afghanistan which is interesting reading. I find it hard to fault the recommendations:

Canada should assert a stronger and more disciplined diplomatic position egarding Afghanistan and the regional players.  Specifically, Canada, in concert with key allies, should press for:

a. Early appointment of a high-level civilian representative of the UN Secretary-General to ensure greater coherence in the civilian and military effort in Afghanistan;

b. Early adoption by NATO of a comprehensive political-military plan to address security concerns and imbalances, especially the need for more troops to bolster security and expedite training and equipment for the Afghan National Security Forces;

c. Forceful representations with Afghanistan’s neighbours, in particular with Pakistan, to reduce the risks posed to regional stability and security by recent developments in that country; and

d. Concerted efforts by the Afghan government to improve governance by tackling corruption and ensuring basic services to the Afghan people, and pursuing some degree of political reconciliation in Afghanistan.

But, you know, the devil’s in the details. What are the chances of all this coming together? I guess we will see in Vilnius next week if it makes a start.

Another Afghanistan related item: I am halfway through Antonio Giustozzi’s Koran, Kalashnikov and Lap-Top: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan. I highly recommend it. Giustozzi freely admits to no prior immersion in the COIN literature or practice but more than any other other I’ve read lately he gets it.

Finally, apologies for light posting of late. I’ve had (still have) a mountainous pile of marking to get through.