1) Although my capacity to be shocked has been eroded dramatically over the past few years, it seems to me that this may actually be worse than the situation in the run-up to Iraq. This goes beyond a situation where the intel picture is broadly in line with administration policy, but in which all the annoying little caveats and ifs, buts and maybes are excised from the picture to smooth public consumption. As Dr Betz says, it’s 180 degrees opposed to what we’ve been briefed with and it looks like the administration (or factions within the administration… has spent up to a year actively conspiring to keep it under wraps.

2) Although this gives the most hawkish positions on Iran a good battering, I don’t see that it entirely vindicates the most dove-like positions either, in that it does seem to be the case that what has worked is a combination carrot and stick approach. While the case for bombing has evaporated (not that I was a big supporter of it in the first place) and I’m not sure what the situation is regarding immediate sanctions, it’s fairly clear that some form of coercive element still needs to be in the toolkit. I think this is probably a victory for the prudent centre ground, so to speak.

3) It’s surely absolutely correct to say that this does not mean that we can all just pack our bags and go home. The problem could re-emerge etc etc. It’s just that the approach could do with recalibrating.

4) It’s already depressingly obvious that this development is going to have absolutely no impact across huge swathes of the conservative commentariat. There’s an epic amount of bait and switch going on now that the NIE appears not to support military action and lots of intellectual contortions of a type that I’m sure we’re all very familiar with.

5) We need a new US government, pronto. It seems to me that a) there’s some massive dysfunction going on, b) there are some people in administration positions who are about as ideologically blinkered as any public servants in recent times and c) even if one is broadly sympathetic to the administration’s world-view, it’s just getting harder and harder to trust that what you’re getting from them isn’t, frankly, bull. I for one seriously hope that Giuliani does not end up in the White House because I think it will be a recipe for four more years of either the same or worse.

So looks like military strikes are off for the foreseeable future and with good reason. I note the conclusion of the BBC report, that all this seems to indicate is that Iran hasn’t really decided whether or not to steam on with weaponising its nuclear program. It is aggressively pushing fwd with enriching uranium. So who know’s what its actual intentions are, and what it will do. Certainly, we shld not be taking the pressure off Iran on this issue.