BBC NEWS | World | Americas | US report cools crisis on Iran
This is all over the Internet but since a while back I posted in Folly to Attack Iran? my case for not shying from attack if Iran could not be encouraged t0 desist from its nuclear weapons programme I reckon I should pitch in my two cents. First, the facts from the Beeb report linked to above:
The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has acted like a safety valve, letting off the steam that had been building up over a possible American military attack.
It is also likely to make it more difficult to significantly increase international sanctions.
Russia and China in particular might argue that Iran is contained for the moment.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin remarked the other day that there was no “concrete evidence” that Iran was building a bomb and his judgment is now accepted by the US intelligence report.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei had also expressed a similar opinion.
‘Astounding’
“This is an astounding conclusion,” said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
You can find the report here on Washington Monthly’s Political Animal accompanied by some astute observations by Kevin drum (hat tip to Abu Muqawama:
- This NIE was apparently finished a year ago, and its basic parameters were almost certainly common knowledge in the White House well before that. This means that all the leaks, all the World War III stuff, all the blustering about the IAEA — all of it was approved for public consumption after Cheney/Bush/Rice/etc. knew perfectly well it was mostly baseless.
- Why were the key judgments finally released? Cheney didn’t want them released, Bush surely didn’t want them released, and DNI Mike McConnell told Congress a few weeks ago that he didn’t want them released. So who did?
All I’ve got is speculation on the second question, but here it is: it was congressional pressure. Democratic members of the various intelligence committees saw the NIE (or a summary or a verbal report or something) and went ballistic. Footnotes and dissents are one thing, but withholding a report whose primary conclusion is 180 degrees contrary to years of administration innuendo produced a rebellion.
So… well, point one basically says it all doesn’t it? Clearly national policy is not made or articulated in order to spare the blushes of academics but up until now I’ve thought that the case for Iran having a working nuclear programme was fairly good. Sure there was debate about how far advanced it was, what to do about it and when, but its existence was not so much in contention. And it turns out that the administration knew that this was not the case a year ago. It’s probably closer to the truth that nobody knows what the hell is going on in Iran. But that’s not germane right now. What is germane is that this is a suicidally stupid way to wage the war of our time. Thus far as Bush critics go I have been of the mild category. Certainly I have seen nothing from the Democrats that gave me greater confidence in them. This has changed my mind. It reminds me of that quote from Kurt von Hammerstein:
I divide officers into four classes — the clever, the lazy, the stupid and the industrious. Each officer possesses at least two of these qualities. Those who are clever and industrious are fitted for the highest staff appointments. Use can be made of those who are stupid and lazy. The man who is clever and lazy is fit for the very highest command. He has the temperament and the requisite nerves to deal with all situations. But whoever is stupid and industrious must be removed immediately.
I once thought Bush fit in the clever and lazy category which is good for a President. After a while it became clear that stupid and lazy was closer to the mark which is a bad thing but not the worst. But it’s clear that around him are serried ranks of the stupid and industrious and the sooner the whole lot are gone the better. Is this the worst, most willfully blind wartime leadership in American history? I think it is.
Tuesday, 4, December, 2007 at 3:41 pm |
Why do stories like this always break when I’m neck deep in work and can’t afford to sit and mull them over? I’ve got some preliminary thoughts nevertheless, but suffice to say I’ll need my lower jaw winched back into place from where it’s lying on the floor before I can discuss them.
Tuesday, 4, December, 2007 at 3:47 pm |
[...] like this comment made in a blog post about the recently released National Intelligence Estimate deflating the Bush [...]
Tuesday, 4, December, 2007 at 4:57 pm |
I trust history will stomp all over this President, because he damn well deserves it. Once, that is, history has finished dancing all over Cheney.
So looks like military strikes are off for the foreseeable future and with good reason. I note the conclusion of the BBC report, that all this seems to indicate is that Iran hasn’t really decided whether or not to steam on with weaponising its nuclear program. It is aggressively pushing fwd with enriching uranium. So who know’s what its actual intentions are, and what it will do. Certainly, we shld not be taking the pressure off Iran on this issue.
Tuesday, 4, December, 2007 at 6:17 pm |
No, we certainly should not be taking our eyes or the pressure off the issue. However, whereas before this report I thought negotiations ought to take place with a gun on the table (metaphorically speaking) after this report I think that the negotiation does not need quite to be accompanied by so much sabre-rattling (mixed metaphorically speaking). The report matters because it changes that calculation dramatically. Which the Administration knew but did not care to share which suggests they had an agenda for war regardless which, moreover, makes it that much harder to do anything at a later point if the evidence did support it, which makes me think they need a right swift kick in the nuts for so compromising the strategic calculus that we are now in a damned if you do damned if you don’t mess of huge proportions.
Tuesday, 4, December, 2007 at 6:59 pm |
OK, a few quick thoughts while I guzzle a quick brew:
1) Although my capacity to be shocked has been eroded dramatically over the past few years, it seems to me that this may actually be worse than the situation in the run-up to Iraq. This goes beyond a situation where the intel picture is broadly in line with administration policy, but in which all the annoying little caveats and ifs, buts and maybes are excised from the picture to smooth public consumption. As Dr Betz says, it’s 180 degrees opposed to what we’ve been briefed with and it looks like the administration (or factions within the administration…) has spent up to a year actively conspiring to keep it under wraps.
2) Although this gives the most hawkish positions on Iran a good battering, I don’t see that it entirely vindicates the most dove-like positions either, in that it does seem to be the case that what has worked is a combination carrot and stick approach. While the case for bombing has evaporated (not that I was a big supporter of it in the first place) and I’m not sure what the situation is regarding immediate sanctions, it’s fairly clear that some form of coercive element still needs to be in the toolkit. I think this is probably a victory for the prudent centre ground, so to speak.
3) It’s surely absolutely correct to say that this does not mean that we can all just pack our bags and go home. The problem could re-emerge etc etc. It’s just that the approach could do with recalibrating.
4) It’s already depressingly obvious that this development is going to have absolutely no impact across huge swathes of the conservative commentariat. There’s an epic amount of bait and switch going on now that the NIE appears not to support military action and lots of intellectual contortions of a type that I’m sure we’re all very familiar with.
5) We need a new US government, pronto. It seems to me that a) there’s some massive dysfunction going on, b) there are some people in administration positions who are about as ideologically blinkered as any public servants in recent times and c) even if one is broadly sympathetic to the administration’s world-view, it’s just getting harder and harder to trust that what you’re getting from them isn’t, frankly, bull. I for one seriously hope that Giuliani does not end up in the White House because I think it will be a recipe for four more years of either the same or worse.
Wednesday, 5, December, 2007 at 10:36 pm |
[...] KOW has noted, the recently declassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear [...]